Oscar Predictions

The Academy Awards are February 22nd. Here are some predictions you can bank on:

Best Actress

Though she’s previously won a supporting actress statue for Girl Interrupted, Jolie is still somewhat underrated because of her looks and high-profile life with husband Brad Pitt. She shows off her acting chops in The Changeling, which should have replaced The Reader as a Best Picture nominee. But the there’s so much going on in the film and it’s not as dialed in on Jolie’s character as it needs to be to elevate her performance above those of her competition.

Now speaking of The Reader, try and follow this: Kate Winslet gets a Golden Globe best supporting actress nomination for her role in the movie and a best leading actress nomination for Revolutionary Road. She wins in both categories. Kate then gets a nominated in the same two categories for the same two roles at the SAG awards. She wins supporting actress but loses lead actress to Streep. Then the Academy Award nominations come around and Winslet gets nominated as lead actress for The Reader (which finally gets it right because she’s clearly the lead in that film) but then gets completely ignored for Revolutionary Road, which is actually the stronger performance. In The Reader, Winslet is sober, somber, and pensive, and while she’s excellent in the film, in RR, as tortured suburban housewife April Wheeler, we get to see her character’s angst, lust, wrath, and anguish explode on the screen. It was obviously a much more demanding role and Winslet not getting nominated for it was baffling. Academy voters will no doubt feel the same way, giving Winslet a great shot at being honored (if for nothing else) her combined work in the two films.

With her role in Rachel Getting Married (as well as her 2007 film, Becoming Jane) Ann Hathaway is just now starting to gain her reputation as a “serious” young actress.

Melissa Leo’s nomination for her quirky role in Frozen River was one of the Oscars annual change-up pitches, designed to show that Academy members are independent thinkers and not slaves to the Hollywood establishment or the studios’ publicity machines. Unfortunately, nominations like Leo’s usually come off as manufactured attempts to shake things up just for the hell of it.

Should win: Winslet (for Revolutionary Road, for which she wasn’t nominated)
Will win: Winslet (for The Reader)

Best Supporting Actor

Michael Shannon had two scene stealing appearances in Revolutionary Road, and was irritatingly good in his role as a slightly unbalanced dinner guest who gets under the skin of reluctant suburbanites Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio. But a lack of screen time (maybe 15 minutes total) is bound to hurt Shannon’s chances here.

2008 was a comeback year for Robert Downey Jr. He was perfectly cast as Tony Stark in Iron Man, but his comic turn in the mix-reviewed Tropic Thunder is just not Oscar material.

Phillip Seymour Hoffmann has established himself as one of Hollywood’s most reliable and versatile actors. Unfortunately, his performance in Doubt may be unfavorably (and unfairly) measured against his Oscar-winning role as the title character in 2005’s Capote.

In The Dark Knight, Ledger gives an unforgettable performance as the maniacal Joker, in the spirit of how the character was reworked in Frank Miller’s graphic novel The Dark Knight Returns, which by the way was the inspiration for Tim Burton's Batman movie back in 1988. And of course, Ledger died just before his film's release, making him a virtual lock in this category.

After fine performances in No Country for Old Men, American Gangster, W, and now Milk, Josh Brolin has reached a point where he will now be on the short list (along with Brad Pitt, George Clooney, and a few others) for every plum leading actor role that comes along. If not for Ledger, he’d be the winner here.


Should win: Ledger
Will win: Ledger

Best Cinematography

No nomination for Baz Lurhmann’s Australia was a surprise, as he’s known for stunning visuals (his Moulin Rouge was a nominee in this category back in 2002) and the photography in Australia was Out of Africa-esque. The Reader’s stark, barren look nicely complemented the film's subject matter and the bleak circumstances of the two protagonists, but nothing about the photography in The Changeling seemed exceptional.

So what we’re left with is pretty much a three horse race. Slumdog Millionaire was maybe the most visually exciting of the nominees, but are folks tiring of steadicam shots that follow characters as they race through crowded streets?

The Dark Knight’s cinematography may have been the best part of the movie, but too many people will only remember the heavy use of CGI and pyrotechnics.

That leaves The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, which has the sweeping, majestic photography of a Titanic or a Reds (both previous winners in this category) combined with state-of-the-art rotoscopy and other visual effects. Throw in some wonderfully moody and shadowy (sometimes sepia-esque) camerawork in and around the New Orleans, and you've got yourself a winner.

Should win: Button

Will win: Button

Related Posts:
Oscar Predictions (Part II)
Oscar Predictions (Part III)