Oscar Predictions (Part II)

Best Actor

This is one of the more competitive categories this year, so the list of nominees regrettably does not include Michael Sheen’s turn as desperate yet debonair TV host David Frost in Frost/Nixon, nor Leonardo DiCaprio as resigned to his lot in life (but occasionally raging) husband, Frank Wheeler, in Revolutionary Road.

Sean Penn’s performance as the title character in Milk was heartfelt and compelling and in a lesser year, he might run away with this award. Penn won the statue previously (for 2004’s Mystic River) and Hollywood’s infatuation with films with gay and lesbian themes and characters, and its penchant for handing out Oscars to actors appearing in these types of films (e.g., Charlize Theron in Monster, Tom Hanks in Philadelphia) could work in Penn's favor.

Brad Pitt gave a sensitive portrayal as the title character in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, but Pitt too often seems to be a bit subdued in his performances (from True Romance, to Sleepers, to Meet Joe Black to the Ocean’s movies). And though in this case, soft-spokeness suits the character of Benjamin well, Academy voters might feel that this performance wasn’t “stirring” enough.

Richard Jenkins, as fine as it he may have been in The Visitor, is handicapped by the fact that probably no one outside of the Jenkins family saw this movie.

Everything seems to be setting up nicely for Mickey Rourke. His personal story is the kind everyone loves. Once a slightly dark and brooding but super-talented young actor (in the line of James Dean, Marlon Brando, and Christopher Walken) he earned critical praise early for his roles in Diner, Body Heat, and The Pope of Greenwich Village, then fell into substance abuse, made a seemingly neverending string of crappy movies (Harley Davidson and The Marlboro Man, Wild Orchid), slid from the A- to the D-list, lost his looks, and was completely written off in Hollywood before being resurrected first by Quentin Tarantino (who cast him in Sin City) and then by The Wrestler director Darren Aronofsky. Further boosting Rourke’s Oscar hopes is the fact that this real-life journey in some ways mirrors that of Rourke’s character in the film, Randy “The Ram” Robinson. 

Frank Langella is a Hollywood veteran who, in Ron Howard’s Frost/Nixon, gives a wonderful depiction of the former President and all the dimensions of his personality -- intellectual, cocksure, condescending, bullying, and finally (during his dramatic final confrontation with Frost) cornered, broken, disappointed and sad.

Should win: Langella
Will win: Rourke

Supporting Actress

Historically, supporting actress has been the Oscar category where underdogs have the best shot at taking home the prize. In the past, we’ve seen such unlikely winners as Mira Sorvino (Mighty Aphrodite), Tatum O’Neal (Paper Moon), Anna Paquin (The Piano) and Marisa Tomei (My Cousin Vinny.) That said, Sophie Okonedo gave the best of many strong supporting performances in The Secret Life of Bees and deserved a nomination for her role as "May" in that film.

By upsetting the far more accomplished Judy Davis, Vanessa Redgrave, and Miranda Richardson in 1993, Tomei probably had the most stunning Oscar win in the last two decades (with the possible exception of Three 6 Mafia who won Best Song in 2006 for for “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp”.) Tomei has branched out nicely in her career since, mixing mainstream roles with gritty performances in offbeat films and arty independents like Slums of Beverly Hills, Unhook the Stars, and Before the Devil Knows Your Dead. Though Tomei was solid in The Wrestler, as stripper and object of Mickey Rourke’s affection "Cassidy", her role didn’t have as much meat on it as those of her competitors and Evan Rachel Wood, who played Rourke’s daughter in the movie, was far better.

Taraji P. Henson gives perhaps the most authentic performance in this category in her role as the strong, sassy, nurturing but no-nonsense mother to Brad Pitt in Benjamin Button.

Viola Davis’ strong performance in Doubt could be overlooked because in the movie, she acts alongside heavyweights Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman. Both she and her co-star and co-nominee Amy Adams would have shined more if Streep and Hoffmann both hadn’t been so great.

Penelope Cruz is a pleasant surprise in the sadly overlooked Vicky Christina Barcelona. But though her acting may be getting increasingly better, doesn't her thick accent and, dare I say, ultra-irritating voice get in the way of her performance?

Again, it’s Supporting Actress, and history has shown anything can happen. Henson is probably the favorite; Tomei has the best pedigree; but the prediction is that Davis sneaks in here, aided by the fact that Doubt is likely to be shut out in all the other major categories and voters will likely want to honor the film somehow.

Should win: Henson
Will win: Davis

Best Editing
A film that’s not “tight” has no shot at winning in this category and The Dark Knight has been fairly criticized for being overlong with a final 30 minutes or so that seemed tacked on.

Editing Frost/Nixon no doubt posed an interesting challenge insofar as the film’s most important scenes consists of a sit down interview between the two title characters in a dimly lit room. Keeping those scenes taunt with tension was certainly an achievement, however, the smaller scope of this picture will prevent it from winning a Best Editing Oscar over a film like Benjamin Button, which traces an 80-year long story across two continents and is filled with wonderfully creative and entertaining flashbacks (such as the scene where Benjamin recounts how Lily had her accident.) Over the course of Button’s two and half hours, never once do you feel antsy, and as it winds down, you truly feel as if you’ve been on a journey. All that spells good editing, my friend.

Despite its eight nominations, Milk will largely be passed over on Academy Award night. That'll certainly prove true in this category.

Slumdog Millionaire is the clear winner here. Like Button, the film has a larger scope and a journey-like feel, as it interweaves the life stories of the three protagonists. The pacing is perfect as well, seamlessly leaping back and forth from gritty action, to tense drama, to tender love story. And of course, Slumdog timeshifts, with the bulk of the story told in flashbacks. And although this is a much more ostentatious example of editor Chris Dickens' prowess, the film demonstrates other, more subtle but no less brilliant editing in the slum scenes that chronicle Salim and Jamal growing up, and also in the very suspenseful final act, when Salim helps Latika escape and then prepares for his confrontation with his boss -- all juxtaposed with Jamal being reinstated and facing the final question.

Should win: Slumdog

Will win: Slumdog