Here's the last of a 3 part series:
Best Adapted Screenplay
In many ways, this year’s Slumdog Millionaire vs The Curious Case of Benjamin Button face-off is reminiscent of 1995, when the innovative and edgy Pulp Fiction ultimately lost Best Picture to the broader, more audience friendly modern-day fable, Forrest Gump. Back then, in the screenplay category, Gump was competing in the "Best Adapted" category, while Pulp Fiction was an original work by Quentin Tarantino. This year, Button’s epic, sweeping story goes against three dramatically intense (but more intimate) dramas (Doubt, The Reader, and Frost Nixon) and the gritty, cathartic Slumdog.
Hollywood never seems to tire of Holocaust-related material (as Ricky Gervais alluded to at the Golden Globes this year) which gives The Reader a shot at this one. However, the Doubt script was so emotionally charged and rich with dialog, it could have easily had the most lasting impact on voters. Regardless, the official pick is cleverly-crafted Slumdog, with its finely weaved, poignant flashback-intensive narrative.
Should win: Slumdog
Will win: Slumdog
Best Original Screenplay
Apart from Milk, we’ve got some very unusual nominees this year. Frozen River scribe Courtney Hunt is a relatively new writer-director and she’s in against some very tough competition. Happy Go Lucky’s Mike Leigh was nominated previously for both Vera Drake and Secrets and Lies; and WALL-E co-writer Andrew Stanton previously brought us Toy Story and Finding Nemo (nominated for this award in 1995 and 2003, respectively.) Hunt won’t win against competition of this caliber and neither will Leigh’s script which, despite being a favorite among his fellow nominating writers, could be hindered by the fact that British humor is often not as broad as it needs to be to gain the appeal needed to win (as was the case with 1988’s A Fish Called Wanda and 1994’s Four Weddings and a Funeral.)
Similar to the 2007 and 2006 winners in this category (Diablo Cody’s Juno and Michael Arndt’s Little Miss Sunshine) Martin McDonagh’s In Bruges is an offbeat comedy that was hard not to appreciate.
Milk’s only real shot at a major award is in this category but WALL-E has a wry story and an environmentally conscious theme, which Hollywood loves. Really tough call here…
Should win: In Bruges
Will win: Milk
Best Director and Best Picture
Since the nominated directors are all from the best picture nominees, let's cover everything together.
Milk director Gus Van Sant is the quintessential Hollywood “outsider” that’s gotten to the point where he’s so respected and his films so highly recognized and successful, he’s now actually more of an “insider”. He’d be a fine selection, but once again, this is just not Milk’s year.
As for Ron Howard (winner for 2001’s A Beautiful Mind), Frost Nixon is a fine film, but nowhere near Howard's best work (see Apollo 13, Ransom, The Missing, Cinderella Man and the aforementioned A Beautiful Mind) so it’s a very long shot he wins here.
Deservingly, at this year’s ceremony, Slumdog and Button will be battling it out in several categories and these two categories are the toughest to call. Watch the telecast closely, as the winners in the Best Cinematography, Editing, and Art Direction categories may give an indication of who will take home the big prizes.
As I mentioned, this year’s Oscars mirrors 1995’s
Forrest Gump vs
Pulp Fiction showdown when the grittier, edgier film (Pulp Fiction) lost Best Picture and Best Director to the more audience-friendly
Gump (and its director Bob Zemeckis.) I’m going out on a limb by saying history WON'T repeat itself this year.
Button director David Fincher has the credentials (Seven, Fight Club, The Game, Zodiac) and a reputation as one of the most talented filmmakers in the business. It’s hard to imagine the Academy would deny him in favor of Slumdog’s Danny Boyle or The Reader’s Stephen Daldry. It's just that Slumdog has had so much more buzz, better legs at the box office, and is clearly the more socially conscious choice. Hollywood is like the rest of America right now and mainly just wants to be entertained and made to feel good again. Button does that quite well, but Slumdog just has too much momentum and will walk away with a Best Picture win.
Best Director
Should win: Danny Boyle (Slumdog)
Will win: Danny Boyle
Best Picture
Should win: Button
Will win: Slumdog
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